Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 46 | 27.7 | 7.9% | 251 | 2.18% |
| 10-19 | 108 | 51.9 | 15% | 474 | 3.48% |
| 20-29 | 132 | 87.3 | 29.1% | 923 | 4.41% |
| 30-39 | 96 | 58.0 | 17.9% | 567 | 4.17% |
| 40-49 | 86 | 40.6 | 12% | 381 | 3.64% |
| 50-59 | 58 | 31.1 | 8.8% | 279 | 2.22% |
| 60-69 | 33 | 18.7 | 5.4% | 170 | 1.48% |
| 70+ | 18 | 12.0 | 3.8% | 119 | 1.14% |
| All ages | 577 | 327.7 | 100% | 3169 | 3.03% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | 22489 | 68146 | 630 | 165 | 1829 |
| Jan 08 | 22772 | 68196 | 630 | 165 | 1945 |
| Jan 09 | 22772 | 68275 | 630 | 165 | 1777 |
| Jan 10 | 23220 | 68388 | 636 | 166 | 2188 |
| Jan 11 | 23451 | 68459 | 639 | 166 | 2418 |
| Jan 12 | 23931 | 68584 | 643 | 166 | 2858 |
| Jan 13 | 24508 | 68855 | 644 | 169 | 3169 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | 14469 | 39559 | 617 | 149 | 701 |
| Jan 08 | 14522 | 39579 | 617 | 149 | 687 |
| Jan 09 | 14536 | 39615 | 617 | 149 | 596 |
| Jan 10 | 14679 | 39659 | 622 | 150 | 734 |
| Jan 11 | 14853 | 39698 | 622 | 150 | 908 |
| Jan 12 | 15260 | 39759 | 625 | 152 | 1309 |
| Jan 13 | 15602 | 39929 | 624 | 152 | 1518 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 18 | 10.0 | 5.7% | 87 | 1.12% |
| 10-19 | 53 | 24.0 | 12.2% | 185 | 2.2% |
| 20-29 | 54 | 36.3 | 19.6% | 298 | 4.19% |
| 30-39 | 65 | 34.6 | 18.9% | 287 | 3.41% |
| 40-49 | 74 | 30.1 | 16.3% | 248 | 3.2% |
| 50-59 | 32 | 22.4 | 12.6% | 192 | 1.98% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 13.0 | 8.1% | 123 | 1.46% |
| 70+ | 23 | 10.9 | 6.4% | 97 | 1.36% |
| All ages | 342 | 181.4 | 100% | 1518 | 2.35% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | 11073 | 26386 | 484 | 121 | 622 |
| Jan 08 | 11129 | 26394 | 484 | 121 | 610 |
| Jan 09 | 11179 | 26421 | 484 | 121 | 611 |
| Jan 10 | 11228 | 26435 | 485 | 121 | 607 |
| Jan 11 | 11287 | 26464 | 488 | 121 | 644 |
| Jan 12 | 11416 | 26487 | 489 | 122 | 745 |
| Jan 13 | 11582 | 26577 | 490 | 122 | 868 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 6.3 | 7.1% | 62 | 1.14% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 10.6 | 12.1% | 105 | 1.93% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 12.9 | 15.9% | 138 | 3.05% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 15.4 | 17.2% | 149 | 2.74% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 12.9 | 16% | 139 | 2.79% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 13.3 | 15.3% | 133 | 1.96% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 7.0 | 9% | 78 | 1.23% |
| 70+ | 15 | 6.3 | 7.4% | 64 | 1.01% |
| All ages | 166 | 84.6 | 100% | 868 | 1.92% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | 24751 | 81323 | 858 | 141 | 2645 |
| Jan 08 | 25072 | 81405 | 859 | 141 | 2862 |
| Jan 09 | 25192 | 81448 | 859 | 141 | 2895 |
| Jan 10 | 25431 | 81608 | 870 | 141 | 3003 |
| Jan 11 | 25899 | 81797 | 875 | 142 | 3470 |
| Jan 12 | 26579 | 82045 | 878 | 143 | 3940 |
| Jan 13 | 27413 | 82388 | 879 | 143 | 4373 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 83 | 50.3 | 10.5% | 461 | 3.9% |
| 10-19 | 169 | 77.4 | 17.1% | 749 | 4.53% |
| 20-29 | 177 | 102.1 | 24.3% | 1061 | 4.99% |
| 30-39 | 127 | 72.9 | 16.8% | 736 | 5.41% |
| 40-49 | 122 | 55.7 | 12.5% | 546 | 4.02% |
| 50-59 | 89 | 45.3 | 10% | 439 | 3.09% |
| 60-69 | 47 | 23.7 | 5.4% | 238 | 1.68% |
| 70+ | 20 | 14.6 | 3.2% | 142 | 1.09% |
| All ages | 834 | 441.9 | 100% | 4373 | 3.7% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | 76789 | 461749 | 2271 | 425 | 5121 |
| Jan 08 | 76881 | 462239 | 2271 | 425 | 4657 |
| Jan 09 | 77227 | 462743 | 2271 | 425 | 4620 |
| Jan 10 | 77908 | 463607 | 2270 | 427 | 5297 |
| Jan 11 | 78754 | 464473 | 2270 | 428 | 6141 |
| Jan 12 | 79787 | 465522 | 2274 | 428 | 7028 |
| Jan 13 | 81956 | 466992 | 2278 | 430 | 8501 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 271 | 144.7 | 16.3% | 1386 | 2.3% |
| 10-19 | 355 | 165.1 | 18.9% | 1609 | 2.26% |
| 20-29 | 474 | 208.4 | 24.2% | 2056 | 1.98% |
| 30-39 | 416 | 145.4 | 15.7% | 1335 | 1.74% |
| 40-49 | 285 | 97.1 | 10.7% | 912 | 1.39% |
| 50-59 | 209 | 72.6 | 7.6% | 644 | 0.98% |
| 60-69 | 110 | 41.7 | 4.3% | 369 | 0.67% |
| 70+ | 49 | 17.6 | 2.2% | 188 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 2169 | 893.0 | 100% | 8501 | 1.55% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 07 | 1208194 | 3886034 | 55884 | 11473 | 104440 |
| Jan 08 | 1213316 | 3890415 | 55906 | 11474 | 100657 |
| Jan 09 | 1219470 | 3893374 | 55915 | 11475 | 98801 |
| Jan 10 | 1234281 | 3898731 | 56136 | 11527 | 109120 |
| Jan 11 | 1252891 | 3905454 | 56356 | 11559 | 124764 |
| Jan 12 | 1269899 | 3913236 | 56533 | 11591 | 137538 |
| Jan 13 | 1297612 | 3927654 | 56762 | 11649 | 155322 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2838 | 1713.3 | 10.5% | 16232 | 2.53% |
| 10-19 | 4477 | 2582.9 | 15.9% | 24722 | 3.27% |
| 20-29 | 4761 | 2956.6 | 19% | 29505 | 3.9% |
| 30-39 | 4906 | 2749.9 | 17.1% | 26528 | 3.5% |
| 40-49 | 3962 | 2210.9 | 13.8% | 21462 | 3.07% |
| 50-59 | 3268 | 1878.9 | 11.8% | 18398 | 2.26% |
| 60-69 | 2138 | 1137.9 | 7.3% | 11283 | 1.49% |
| 70+ | 1346 | 693.3 | 4.6% | 7070 | 1.1% |
| All ages | 27713 | 15935.1 | 100% | 155322 | 2.67% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-04 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 11943"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges